CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2016 Nov 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and Regions 2605 (N08W48, Bxo/beta) and 2606
(N11E36, Axx/alpha) were stable throughout the period.  A filament
eruption centered near N24W15 was observed in SDO 193 imagery between
05/0200-0500 UTC and an associated CME was observed in C2 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 05/0424 UTC.  Forecaster analysis and ENLIL model
output suggest CME arrival early on day three (08 Nov); see geomagnetic
forecast for additional details.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next
three days (06-08 Nov).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 3,750 pfu observed at 05/1615 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
day one and two (06-07 Nov) but is expected to decrease to normal levels
on day three (08 Nov) in response to elevated geomagnetic field
activity.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period.  Total
field strength values varied between 2-5 nT and the Bz component was
generally northward.  Solar wind speeds were steady between 320-375 km/s
and the phi angle was in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at background levels on
days one and two (06-07 Nov).  The onset of a positive polarity CH HSS
combined with the anticipated arrival of the 05 Nov CME on day three (08
Nov) is expected to enhance the near-Earth solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a background solar wind
environment.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07
Nov) under a nominal solar wind regime.  The weak influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS combined with the anticipated arrival of the 05
Nov CME is expected to cause periods of active field conditions, with a
chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms, on day three (08 Nov).

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